Achieving System Reliability Growth Through Robust Design and Test

Achieving System Reliability Growth Through Robust Design and Test

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This book offers new definitions of how failures can be characterized, and how those new definitions can be used to develop metrics that will quantify how effective a Design for Reliability (DFR) process is in (1) identifying failure modes and (2) mitigating their root failure causes. Reliability growth can only occur in the presence of both elements.

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Product Description

Historically, the reliability growth process has been thought of, and treated as, a reactive approach to growing reliability based on failures “discovered” during testing or, most unfortunately, once a system/product has been delivered to a customer. As a result, many reliability growth models are predicated on starting the reliability growth process at test time “zero,” with some initial level of reliability (usually in the context of a time-based measure such as Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF)). Time “zero” represents the start of testing, and the initial reliability of the test item is based on its inherent design. The problem with this approach, still predominant today, is that it ignores opportunities to grow reliability during the design of a system or product, i.e., opportunities to go into reliability growth testing with a higher initial inherent reliability at time zero.

In addition to the traditional approaches to reliability growth during test, this book explores the activities and opportunities that can be leveraged to promote and achieve reliability growth during the design phase of the overall system life cycle. The ability to do so as part of an integrated, proactive design environment has significant implications for developing and delivering reliable items quickly, on time and within budget.

This book offers new definitions of how failures can be characterized, and how those new definitions can be used to develop metrics that will quantify how effective a Design for Reliability (DFR) process is in (1) identifying failure modes and (2) mitigating their root failure causes. Reliability growth can only occur in the presence of both elements.

Additional information

ISBN:

978-1-933904-36-8

Product Format:

Download, Hardcopy

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION 1
  1.1 EMPHASIS ON PRACTICAL APPLICATION 1
  1.2 RELIABILITY GROWTH IN DESIGN VS TEST 2
  1.3 COMPANION/SUPPLEMENT TO MIL-HDBK-189A 3
2. DEFINITIONS 5
3. RELIABILITY GROWTH-RELATED POLICIES, STANDARDS AND HANDBOOKS 13
  3.1 WEAPON SYSTEM ACQUISITION REFORM ACT (WSARA) 13
  3.2 DODI INSTRUCTION 5000.02 15
  3.3 DEFENSE TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM (DTM) 11-003 17
  3.4 ANSI/GEIA-STD-0009 18
    3.4.1 Identification of Failure Modes and Mechanisms 20
    3.4.2 Closed-Loop Failure Mode Mitigation Process 22
  3.5 MIL-HDBK-189A 24
    3.5.1 Reliability Growth Planning 24
    3.5.2 Reliability Tracking 25
    3.5.3 Reliability Projection 25
4. THE CONCEPT OF RELIABILITY GROWTH 27
  4.2 RELIABILITY GROWTH MANAGEMENT 29
  4.3 TOTAL LIFE CYCLE COST CONSIDERATIONS 33
  4.4 THE RELIABILITY GROWTH PROCESS 47
    4.4.1 Type A and Type B Failure Modes 47
    4.4.2 Achieving Growth 48
    4.4.3 Attaining the Requirement 48
    4.4.4 Growth Rate 48
    4.4.5 Reliability Growth Management Control Processes 49
  4.5 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING DESIGN 57
  4.6 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING TESTING 60
  4.7 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING MANUFACTURING 62
  4.8 RELIABILITY GROWTH DURING OPERATION AND SUPPORT 64
5. RELIABILITY GROWTH METHODS 67
  5.1 DESIGN 67
    5.1.1 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)/Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) 67
    5.1.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 101
    5.1.3 Reliability Physics (Physics-of-Failure (PoF)) 114
    5.1.4 Design of Experiments (DOE) 129
    5.1.5 Accelerated and Highly Accelerated Testing 139
    5.1.6 Sneak Analysis 146
    5.1.7 Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) 155
    5.1.8 Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software 164
    5.1.9 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Design Reliability Growth 170
  5.2 TEST 172
    5.2.1 Test-Fix-Test 177
    5.2.2 Test-Find-Test 178
    5.2.3 Test-Fix-Test with Delayed Fixes (including Test-Fix-Find-Test) 182
    5.2.4 Combined Influence of Factors on Reliability Growth Curve Shapes 183
    5.2.5 Software Reliability Growth 184
    5.2.6 FRACAS 188
    5.2.7 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Reliability Growth During Testing 200
  5.3 MANUFACTURING PROCESSES 201
    5.3.1 Statistical Process Control and Six-Sigma Processes 201
    5.3.2 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Manufacturing Process Reliability Growth 214
  5.4 OPERATION AND SUPPORT 217
    5.4.1 Repair Strategy 217
    5.4.2 Data Collection and Analysis 218
    5.4.3 The Role of Unanticipated and Unexpected Failure Modes in Reliability Growth During Operation and
Support
242
6. RELIABILITY GROWTH PLANNING MODELS 245
  6.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW 250
  6.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON 253
  6.3 POWER LAW 256
    6.3.1 Duane Postulate (MIL-HDBK-189 Reliability Growth Planning Model) 257
    6.3.2 AMSAA System Level Planning Model (SPLAN) 260
    6.3.3 AMSAA Subsystem Level Planning Model (SSPLAN) 265
  6.4 PLANNING MODELS BASED ON PROJECTION METHODOLOGY (PM2) 271
    6.4.1 AMSAA Projection Methodology – Continuous (PM2) 271
    6.4.2 AMSAA Projection Methodology – Discrete (PM2) 276
    6.4.3 AMSAA Threshold Program (TP) 278
  6.5 SUMMARY OF RELIABILITY GROWTH PLANNING MODELS 280
7. RELIABILITY GROWTH TRACKING MODELS 283
  7.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW 284
  7.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON 292
  7.3 RELIABILITY GROWTH TRACKING MODEL CONTINUOUS (RGTMC) 293
  7.4 AMSAA DISCRETE TRACKING MODEL (RGTMD) 303
  7.5 AMSAA SUBSYSTEM LEVEL TRACKING MODEL (SSTRACK) 307
8. RELIABILITY GROWTH PROJECTION MODELS 313
  8.1 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW 313
  8.2 SUMMARY COMPARISON 317
  8.3 AMSAA/CROW PROJECTION MODEL (ACPM) 319
  8.4 CROW EXTENDED RELIABILITY GROWTH MODEL (2004 RAMS PAPER) 323
    8.4.1 RIAC Enhancements to Crow Extended Model 329
  8.5 AMSAA MATURITY PROJECTION MODEL (AMPM) 349
  8.6 AMSAA MATURITY PROJECTION MODEL BASED ON STEIN ESTIMATION (AMPM-STEIN) 356
  8.7 AMSAA DISCRETE PROJECTION MODEL (DPM) 357
  8.8 CROW CONTINUOUS EVALUATION MODEL (2010 RAMS PAPER) 358
    8.8.1 RIAC Enhancements to Crow Continuous Evaluation Model 362
9. SUMMARIZED CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 373
10. RELIABILITY GROWTH SOFTWARE TOOLS 375
11. REFERENCES 377
12. ACRONYMS 387
APPENDIX A: PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING TECHNICAL RELIABILITY REQUIREMENT WITH CONFIDENCE 393
  A.1: PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 70% CONFIDENCE 395
  A.2 PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 80% CONFIDENCE 407
  A.3 PROBABILITY OF DEMONSTRATING RELIABILITY TECHNICAL REQUIREMENT WITH 90% CONFIDENCE 419
APPENDIX B: RELEVANT RELIABILITY GROWTH REFERENCES (FROM MIL-HDBK-189A) 431
  B.1: RELIABILITY GROWTH SURVEYS AND HANDBOOKS 431
  B.2: OTHER LITERATURE (THEORETICAL RESULTS, PERSPECTIVES AND APPLICATIONS) 433